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Vimpat goes off patent in 2022, putting UCB's earnings at risk but "Vimpat XR," if licensed from Adamas, could keep UCB's highly successful franchise going till 2036. Such a transaction would mirror Adamas's successful licensing deal for a different extended release drug with Forest Laboratories in 2012, which generated hundreds of millions of dollars for Adamas and clearly demonstrated the strength of its intellectual property. Even assuming that most of the economics of "Vimpat XR" go to UCB, a deal could produce major gains relative to Adamas's current market cap and is not, to our knowledge, reflected in current sell side target prices.Based on 12/31/16 disclosures (not updated in subsequent 10 Qs).Represents 2017 H1 values annualized.Source: company filings, Kerrisdale analysisAdamas's recent success has been a long time coming.
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