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Sign in / Join NowPlease Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.What Is The Fair Price Of An Option You Buy Or SellMar. 22, 2018 5:26 PM ETIncludes: SPDR S 500 Trust ETF (SPY)SummaryA price is fair if both the buyer and the seller have zero expected profit.Mathematical expectancy is a key. It equals the probability weighted future outcomes.Fair Value of an option is equal to its mathematically expected payoff at expiration.Difference between the Fair and Market price is the expected profit of the seller of an overpriced contract (or of the buyer of an underpriced one).Probabilities can be derived from the historical distribution of the underlying security returns.When a market price exceeds this Fair Value, an option contract is overpriced and the seller has an edge over the buyer.

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