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This scenario is based on its 'reference case' which is in turn is based on an assumption that oil prices trend higher towards $80 $90 over the next four years. Although growth from the various" shale" basins will be significant, some of the additional output growth will also be required to offset the decline in US conventional oil output over the next five years.Source: EIA, AEO 2018What does this imply Even if supply growth manages to exceed demand growth in 2018, this is unlikely to hold true looking out to 2019 and beyond, assuming oil prices remain below $60 per barrel. Oil output remains flat.Naturally, this is exactly what OPEC and perhaps Russia are waiting for as this will enable them to once again ramp up production into a sustained supply deficit.

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