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With expected EPS around $3.30 in 2018, HOG would be currently trading at a P/E multiple of roughly 13. It's also trading at roughly 9x 2017 FCF per share of $4.75, although the figure was helped by below average capex and above average D These kinds of multiples may look cheap if we focus on Harley Davidson's past success, but may be well deserved if we consider the recent trends and the low visibility into the future sources of stabilization/growth. Moreover, the apparently low multiples may even translate into a perfect value trap if the current weakness in North America persists and leads to a further decline in sales, which will surely bring much lower EPS as a result of negative operating leverage.My view is that we can't say this stock is cheap unless we start to see signs of stabilization or, at least, potential sources of stabilization, which are completely lacking at the moment.
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