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Combining the median simulation result of a 4.77% increase through the end of the second quarter with the median simulation result of a 2.67% increase for the first quarter implies a 2.05% increase in the index from the end of March through the end of June. Finally, the probability of the market being in correction or bear market territory equals 6.1%.Third Quarter 2018The results of the simulations through the end of the third quarter of 2018 can be summed up in a few key points. First, the estimated probability that the market is higher at the end of September than at the beginning of 2018 equals 73.1%.
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