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Although US stocks rose in this time period, Treasury bonds and fixed income assets fell in price as rates increased, only to reverse the pattern as the ECB program ramped up to drive European interest rates into negative territory in 2015. The Treasury interest rate pattern influence as the ECB launched its asset buying program bonanza is a warning to fixed income holders who are long duration as the ECB is expected to ramp down their asset buying program going into the end of 2018 just when the US Treasury needs more and more new financing.Given the noted systemic relationships between the Central Bank buying behavior on US asset prices, both stocks and bonds, the real issue now is how will this grand coordinated QE experiment end as the programs are wound down The massive monetary stimulus programs are not only scheduled to taper throughout 2018, pushing the yearly change rate toward zero, the buying programs are expected to go negative by 2019.Bottom Line Central Bank Withdrawal Equals US Rates Up, Dollar Down, Stock Market Thrashing Based on the time series data available on the effect the Central Bank asset buying stimulus programs have had on asset prices worldwide, I think you can bet the house that stock markets will implode if the asset buying programs are shelved assuming there is not a replacing financial force to replace the bid in stocks and bonds. In terms of stocks, Goldman Sachs sees the bid coming from a couple of areas primarily, ETF demand (institutional and retail investors) and huge amount of corporate buybacks, and continuation of foreign equity inflows.I don't know about you, but given the sensitivity I see in the data of stock prices to even the slightest slowdown in Central Bank purchases, the corporate buy back machine is a BB gun for defense in the face of a barrage of tanks moving downhill with overvalued stock prices squarely in the cross hairs.

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