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Latest revision as of 13:01, 4 May 2019

This supply will slip back to 2018.Bond Buyer Visible Supply (includes 30 day forward calendar plus dealer holdings)We have seen municipal yields stretch higher, with a number of longer maturity housing deals having 40 year plus maturities over 4% and in some cases all the way up to 4.2%. With the 30 year Treasury bond currently yielding 2.70%, muni/Treasury yield ratios are ranging from 140% to 155%, an incredible bargain in our view.Next year we will see municipal bond new issue supply decrease sharply, since 2018 issuance has been moved into this year. Even in a world where short term interest rates will continue to rise as the Federal Reserve raises policy interest rates (most likely 2 3 times next year) and where long term rates should rise slowly as the Fed lets its balance sheet shrink, tax free yields should either stay the same or move down as the municipal bond world confronts a market with much less issuance..

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