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Overpricing is neither necessary nor sufficient for a recession or a crash. Strangely, in 2017, overpricing came with a low systemic risk measured by MTS10, and also with an anemic VIX index repeatedly hitting new lows.VIX index (source: Yahoo Finance 11/27/2017)MTS10 is absolutely independent of the VIX (VXX, VXZ). However, both have been screaming that the market risk was extremely low in 2017.We are getting closer to the end of this bull market (we are always getting closer to the end).

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