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Sign in / Join NowSummaryPension funds have made very generous forward return estimates.A 60 40 model leaves them badly in the hole.REITs are the only asset class that can actually deliver.We show the AFFO yields of some of the best and explain why the impact of further interest rate hikes is greatly overblown.Pension funds are an optimistic bunch. We know that because we just looked at their return assumptions.While pension funds have iPhone Cases access to a variety of investments, using the traditional 60% equities and 40% bonds portfolio makes the median 7.5% return assumption rather difficult. To get to that amount using the 10% Treasury rate of 3% would require stocks to deliver a rather fantastic 10.5% compounded returns from this point.What kind of returns can we expect from stocks going forward One popular model, the Shiller cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE), forecasts negative stock returns on a 10 year horizon.This can be seen by looking at how out of sync the CAPE is with its history.In case you thought there were pockets of value that pension funds could sniff out, Jeremy Grantham has some bad news.While we retain a slightly higher degree of optimism than these models, by and large, the take home message is correct.

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